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Turmeric & Cumin continue to aim for the stars

posted May 2, 2010, 6:21 AM by Unknown user
Arrivals of Turmeric at the local mandis continue to be very low. Average daily arrivals at Nizamabad remain less than 10000 bags compared to 20000 bags in corresponding year. Also the NCDEX warehouses have nil stock of turmeric. These two factors coupled with continued buying support from Middle East keep the bullishness in Turmeric going forward. However, no demand from Bangladesh at the present rates may cap the gain going somewhat. 

Cumin is also showing bullish tendencies with low arrivals. Arrivals at Unjha spot market fell to 10000 bags per day against 20000 bags two weeks ago. But hopes of higher output and sluggish overseas demand may offset gains. Production in 2010 is seen rising to 2.9 million bags of 60 kg each from 2.7 million bags in 2009. Exports in February 2010 dropped 17 percent to 2,500 tonnes on year. However, according the market sources jeera production in Syria Turkey and Iran (India's biggest competitor) are projected at 25 thousand and 15 thousand respectively. Carryover stocks in these above nations are very low. There is forecast of rains in Syria and Turkey. Heavy showers will spoil the standing crop. This may just give Indian Cumin the advantage and maintain the bullishness. 

Chillies on the other hand have seen some correction, largely due to low arrival of good quality materials. The quality over the last week have deteriorated significantly and this coupled with a sudden spike in transport rates by the local transport union have seen very few takers for Indian chillies. Going forward, the local mandis will remain closed after 7th May and later the cold storage materials will come out. With reduced off-take from Bangladesh and declining quality, chillies look to continue the bearish trend for sometime. 

Indian maize of Bihar origin has started coming in the local yards, and it is finidng good demand from Bangladesh. However the arrival pressure is high and is expected to continue the same for another week. Also quality of Bihar maize is not accepted widely anywhere else except Bangladesh. These two factors might lead to further weakening of the price in thee near term. But keeping in mind the strong Bnagldesh demand for Bihar maize every year, prices should bounce back after hitting a low in 1-2 weeks.